El Niño Raises Flood Risk Across Puntland Ahead of Deyr Rains

Puntland faces an increased risk of heavy rainfall during the October–December Deyr season, bringing both opportunities for drought recovery and the possibility of destructive flooding. The regional outlook links the expected wetter conditions to a strengthening El Niño, with rainfall potentially beginning early or around its usual time in parts of Puntland.

According to IMC Puntland’s September outlook, Garowe, Galkacyo, Qardho and surrounding districts have a 65 percent chance of above-normal rainfall. Bosaso, Qandala, Eyl and nearby areas have a 55 percent chance. Parts of Ceerigaabo, Laasqoray and Iskushuban are classified as dry-season areas where meaningful Deyr rainfall is not expected. The outlook therefore does not indicate the same conditions everywhere. These percentages measure the likelihood of wetter-than-normal seasonal rainfall, not the probability that individual towns will flood.

For Puntland, flash flooding is a key concern. SWALIM has previously documented heavy rainfall producing flash floods in Qardho. Intense downpours can send water rapidly through seasonal channels and into settlements, damaging buildings and roads. That history establishes a vulnerability; it does not mean the same places will necessarily flood this year.

Damage to transport routes could have consequences beyond flooded neighbourhoods. If roads become impassable, deliveries of food, fuel and medicine could be delayed, while pastoral households could struggle to reach markets or services. These are potential consequences of access disruption, rather than confirmed forecasts of shortages. SWALIM identifies road damage, displacement and interrupted livelihoods and social services among the effects of flash flooding.

Water safety would also become a concern wherever flooding damages sanitation facilities or contaminates drinking supplies. Families in temporary shelters and places with limited sanitation could face particular difficulties. UNICEF has documented how previous El Niño-related flooding in Somalia worsened acute watery diarrhoea and cholera risks. This is a preparedness concern, not evidence of a new outbreak in Puntland.

The rains could also bring substantial benefits. FAO says enhanced rainfall can replenish water sources, regenerate pasture and support crop and livestock production after rainfall deficits. For Puntland’s pastoral communities, those improvements could support recovery. Where rainfall becomes excessive, however, flooding could damage livelihoods and cause livestock losses. The balance will depend on rainfall intensity, distribution and local exposure.

Preparedness now could reduce disruption later. Priorities identified at Puntland’s seasonal outlook meeting include stronger community warnings, protection of water sources and livestock, and plans to keep health and education services operating.

The seasonal outlook provides advance warning, but it cannot identify the exact day or location of a flood. FAO says increasingly detailed forecasts should guide decisions about supplies, safe areas and evacuation routes as the season approaches. Puntland’s response will need to turn that early warning into practical action wherever local forecasts show danger.